Today’s Danger vs 2050: A Wake-Up Call for Pakistan
By Halima Hafeez
Pakistan stands at a climate crossroads. From devastating monsoon floods to rapidly melting glaciers, the nation faces an existential threat that goes far beyond seasonal calamities. The scale of this crisis is now a matter of economic survival, food security, and national security.
During an event in Karachi on January 25, 2025, British Deputy Head of Mission Martin Dawson warned that “If Pakistan fails to take urgent action to curb the impact of climate change, it could face losses of up to $1.2 trillion by 2050.”
This is not a distant possibility. The threat is already here — and worsening each year.
The Present Crisis: Floods, Food Security, and Humanitarian Disaster
In recent months, Pakistan has endured catastrophic floods across Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Millions have been displaced, and vital infrastructure has been swept away.
On September 4, 2025, flash floods in the Deral Valley (Diamer District, Gilgit-Baltistan) demolished homes, destroyed crops and livestock, and forced hundreds to flee. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has since issued multiple high-priority warnings for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and urban flooding in northern regions.
According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), more than 2 million people have been affected nationwide, 700,000 evacuated, and at least 50 confirmed deaths have occurred so far.
In Punjab, the Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) reported staggering agricultural losses:
- 60% of rice crops destroyed
- 35% of cotton wiped out
- 30% of sugarcane damaged
- Over 1.8 million people affected in the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej river basins
PBF President Khawaja Mehboob ur Rehman observed that “Floodwaters should be treated as resources to manage, not just disasters to fear.” His remark highlights a painful truth — Pakistan continues to react to floods, rather than prepare for them.
Food Insecurity and Economic Strain
The United Nations has raised alarms over Pakistan’s escalating food crisis and inflation spiral. The data is dire:
- 70% of Punjab’s rice crop submerged
- Sugarcane and sesame plantations destroyed
- Livestock losses driving rural families into extreme poverty
- Import levies on vegetables and fruits worsening shortages
UN Humanitarian Coordinator Mo Yahya warned: “This is not a natural disaster. It is the new normal caused by climate change.”
Pakistan now faces a dual disaster — collapsing food systems and crippling inflation that threatens livelihoods nationwide.
Politics vs Preparedness: A Dangerous Distraction
While Pakistan drowns, the political arena remains flooded with blame. As Khurram Husain noted in Dawn (August 21, 2025), Punjab (PML-N), Sindh (PPP), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (PTI) have turned natural disasters into political scorecards.
- Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz faced backlash over misleading imagery and politicised relief branding, fuelling public distrust.
- In Sindh, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari demanded transparency in rehabilitation, yet progress remains painfully slow.
- Karachi, after receiving 200mm rainfall in just 12 hours, still suffers from poor drainage, encroachments, and weak urban governance.
Pakistan, with a vast land area of over 700,000 sq. km, operates only 85 automatic weather stations — far below World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) standards. The result: a nation blind to incoming disasters.
The 2050 Warning: Climate, Nature, and Economic Collapse
Martin Dawson’s statement in Karachi serves as a critical warning: “We are not just in a climate crisis, but a nature crisis as well.”
Biodiversity Collapse
- Pakistan’s biodiversity has declined by 69% since 1970.
- Only 200–400 snow leopards remain, threatened by habitat destruction and illegal trade.
- Karachi’s mangrove forests lost 200 hectares between 2010 and 2022, leaving the coast defenceless against rising seas and cyclones.
Financial Catastrophe
If no action is taken:
- Pakistan’s economic losses could reach $1.2 trillion by 2050.
- Agricultural GDP may decline by over 30%.
- Climate-driven displacement could reach 25 million people, creating one of the world’s largest internal migration crises.
What Pakistan Must Do — Now
Avoiding a climate-driven collapse demands a science-based, coordinated national response.
- Climate Finance & Green Investments
- Leverage global funds like the UK’s Climate Finance Initiative.
- Mobilise private sector partnerships to introduce sustainable technologies and reduce emissions.
- Agricultural Resilience
- Declare an Agricultural Emergency to restore devastated farmlands.
- Offer interest-free loans (up to Rs2 million) to small farmers.
- Build community-level water storage systems and climate-smart irrigation networks.
- Disaster Preparedness
- Upgrade weather monitoring systems to meet WMO standards.
- Relocate vulnerable communities ahead of GLOFs and seasonal floods.
- Biodiversity Conservation
- Expand the Darwin Initiative and strengthen wildlife protection laws.
- Launch national campaigns against poaching and illegal wildlife trade.
A Wake-Up Call for the Nation
Pakistan can no longer afford to treat climate change as a secondary issue. The 2022 floods alone cost $30 billion; today’s damages are already higher — and by 2050, projected losses could soar to $1.2 trillion if urgent reforms are delayed.
Every year of inaction pushes Pakistan closer to a climate tipping point, where food insecurity, economic collapse, and biodiversity loss become irreversible realities.
The time to act is now — or Pakistan risks becoming unlivable by 2050.
